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Tang Sanyi joins research to estimate novel coronavirus transmission

2020-01-27

 

Shaanxi Normal University’s Prof. Tang Sanyi has led SNNU’s biomathematics team to team up with Canadian and Chinese researchers in an estimation of the transmission of 2019-nCov and its implication for public health interventions. (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3525558)

Their results of their study, which is based on the spreading mechanism of the virus, measures such as tracking of close contacts and the locking dowof the infected city, etc., were published in a research paper (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3525558).

The study was a collaboration with Prof. Wu Jianhongs team from Canada and a biomathematics team of Xian Jiaotong University.

Based on the data of reported cases from January 10 to 22, the study uses a dynamic model and statistical method to predict the basic reproductive rate to be 6.47 (95% confidence interval at 5.71-7.23).

It estimates that the the epidemic will reach its peak around March 10, if the containing measures taken on and before January 22 are continued.

It also conducts a sensitivity analysis to discuss the effects of prevention and control measures taken by Wuhan municipal government and the Wuhan locking down, and claims these measures will significantly reduce the reproductive rate.


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