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Academic Seminar for Young Researchers (Session 17): A Mathematical Model of Biomedical Interventions for HIV Prevention Among Men Who Have Sex with Men in China

Lecturer:Jinghua Li

Time:14:00-16:00

Date:2018-11-23

Venue:Academic Room 101 (first floor),Annex of Education Museum

About the Lecture:

Background: The new HIV treatment guidelines in China recommend antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all people living with HIV, but significant gaps in implementation still exist. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) can effectively reduce the risk of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM). This study assessed the epidemiological impact and cost effectiveness of PrEP, enhanced biomedical interventions and their combination among MSM in China.

Methods: A deterministic mathematical model was developed and projected over 20 years to assess the impact of the PrEP, biomedical interventions and their combinations. Incidence and prevalence of HIV were measured, and cost-effectiveness was assessed using incremental cost (international dollars, Int.$) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained.

Results: A total of 0.78 million new HIV infections were estimated to occur over the next 20 years if no additional interventions are implemented among MSM. The PrEP-only strategy covering 25–75% of HIV-negative high-risk MSM can prevent 0.09–0.20 million (12.1%–25.7%) new infections, at a cost of 17277–18452 Int.$/QALY. The optimal cost-effectiveness path is from test-and-treat to the combination strategy of test-and-treat and PrEP. Some strategies could almost eliminate new HIV infections over the next 20 years.

Conclusions: PrEP, test-and-treat, and their combinations among MSM are effective and cost-effective relative to current policy. PrEP is an important and cost-effective addition to current policy in China.

Profile of the Lecturer:

Dr. Jinghua Liis an Associate Professor at Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University. Dr. Li received her PhD degree from the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Master’s degree (in Global Health Policy) from the University of Tokyo, and Bachelor’s degree (in Building Science and Economics) from Tsinghua University. Her research interests include behavioral health, epidemiological modeling, economic evaluation, focusing on HIV-related research. She has authored/co-authored 16 publications in international peer-reviewed journals. She is the principle investigator of National Natural Science Foundation of China and Sun Yet-sen University 100 Talents Scheme.

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